Category:BGD：修订间差异
无编辑摘要 |
无编辑摘要 |
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'''Big Gap Down,''' 80% chance of at least one reversal in the first hour. The bears want a double top or wedge top on a pullback to near the EMA. The bulls want a double bottom or wedge bottom for an early low of the day. When there is Big gap down, odds favor bears: | '''Big Gap Down,''' 80% chance of at least one reversal in the first hour. The bears want a double top or wedge top on a pullback to near the EMA. The bulls want a double bottom or wedge bottom for an early low of the day. When there is Big gap down, odds favor bears: | ||
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* 60%: 65% chance the gap will not close today. 60% chance of swing down in 1st hour. | * 60%: 65% chance the gap will not close today. 60% chance of swing down in 1st hour. | ||
* if instead it is going up, often pulls back 50% in wedge bull channel. | * if instead it is going up, often pulls back 50% in wedge bull channel. | ||
Worth to mention, '''if the gap down is overly big''', i.e. a '''huge''' gap, it increases chance of TRO that lasts a couple hours since it might take that long to get near MA<ref>[[20220913|''20220913'']]</ref>. ''Generally, a big gap is a gap that is around the half of the daily range, a huge gap is a gap that is bigger than the daily range.'' | |||
== 4 common outcomes == | == 4 common outcomes == | ||
2023年2月17日 (五) 15:54的版本
Big Gap Down, 80% chance of at least one reversal in the first hour. The bears want a double top or wedge top on a pullback to near the EMA. The bulls want a double bottom or wedge bottom for an early low of the day. When there is Big gap down, odds favor bears:
- 80%: 85% chance of PB in first 2 hours. 80% chance of at least one reversal attempt in the first hour. (i.e. some kind of TR on the open).
- 70%: 75% chance trending TR day. 70% chance swing down after 1pm ET.
- 60%: 65% chance the gap will not close today. 60% chance of swing down in 1st hour.
- if instead it is going up, often pulls back 50% in wedge bull channel.
Worth to mention, if the gap down is overly big, i.e. a huge gap, it increases chance of TRO that lasts a couple hours since it might take that long to get near MA[1]. Generally, a big gap is a gap that is around the half of the daily range, a huge gap is a gap that is bigger than the daily range.
