阿布答疑：我可以跟单赚钱吗？：修订间差异

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（创建页面，内容为“我记得许多年前，我花了3000美金从一个公司购买交易信号。还订阅了各种专家的分析，咨询热线。但最后发现钱都打水漂了。 如果你在电视上某个"专家"说：“黄金价格要涨”，或者“原油价格要跌”，或者“股市要涨”，你无法从中获利，因为你经常听到我说：约有10%（强劲趋势）的时候你只能买进或只能卖出。而剩下90%的时间（盘整区间），如…”）
 
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  我记得 许多年前，我花 了3000 美金从一个公司购买交易 信号。还 订阅了各种专家的分析 ， 咨询热线 。但 最后 发现 钱都 打水漂了 。
 许多年前，我花 费3000 美金从一个公司购买 了一个 交易 策略，同时 订阅了各种专家的分析 频道以及 咨询热线 ，可 最后 都无疾而终。你一定也在电视上听到过某某"专家"说：“黄金价格要涨”、“原油价格要跌”，或者“股市要涨”等等。你以为你掌握了盈利门路？实际上，你无法从中获利。我经常说：“市场大约有10%的时间处于强劲趋势中，在那种情况下，你只能买进或只能卖出，而剩下90%的时间是盘整状态，在盘整区间里，保持单边行情的看法只会让你亏 钱 。但如果你正确地管理你的交易，你任何时间买进或卖出 都 可以获利” 。


如果你在电视上某个"专家"说：“黄金价格要涨”，或者“原油价格要跌”，或者“股市要涨”，你无法从中获利，因为你经常听到我说：约有10%（强劲趋势）的时候你只能买进或只能卖出。而剩下90%的时间（盘整区间），如果你正确地管理你的交易，你可以在任何时候买进或卖出并获利。
I remember years ago — I forget the name of the company; maybe it was Essex Trading — I paid them $3,000 for formulas.  I used to subscribe to all kinds of guru newsletters and hotlines, and a lot of it is just a total waste of money, right? If you see some clown on television saying, “Gold is going up,” or “Crude oil is going down,” or “The stock market is going up,” you cannot make money off of that because you hear me say this pretty regularly:  About 10 percent of the time (in strong trends) you can only make money buying or only make money selling.  90 percent of the time (in trading ranges), you can buy or sell at any point and make money, if you manage your trade correctly. 
 
I remember years ago — I forget the name of the company; maybe it was Essex Trading — I paid them $3,000 for formulas.  I used to subscribe to all kinds of guru newsletters and hotlines, and a lot of it is just a total waste of money, right?
 
If you see some clown on television saying, “Gold is going up,” or “Crude oil is going down,” or “The stock market is going up,” you cannot make money off of that because you hear me say this pretty regularly:  About 10 percent of the time (in strong trends) you can only make money buying or only make money selling.  90 percent of the time (in trading ranges), you can buy or sell at any point and make money, if you manage your trade correctly.  
===授人以渔===
===授人以渔===
  受 人以鱼，不如 受 人以渔，在交易中也是如此。在你完全 能够 承担交易中所有责任之前，以交易 谋 生 确 实 很困难 。 特别是 如果你 刚开始 ， 账户 不够大，很容易说：“ 哦 天哪，我真的很绝望，我必须 通过这个 赚 钱。 我花了很多时间存下这 些钱 。” 这些担忧会让你难以两头兼顾。 在我看来， 非常想挣钱的 这 些 情绪， 会 让你的 更加难在 交易 中成功 。
  授 人以鱼，不如 授 人以渔，在交易中也是如此。在你 能够 完全承担交易中所有责任之前，以交易 为 生 是不现 实 的 。如果你 还是一位交易新手 ， 资金也 不够大， 你 很容易 就会 说：“天哪，我真的很绝望，我必须赚 回来， 我花了很多时间 才 存下这 笔本金 。”在我看来，这 种 情绪 只会让你失去冷静思考的能力，导致恶性循环 ，让你的交易 越来越差 。
===Teach a man to fish (trade)===
===Teach a man to fish (trade)===
You sometimes hear the adage, “You teach a man to fish.  You don't give him a fish,” and that's true with trading, right? Until you're completely comfortable taking full responsibility, it's really hard to make a living.  And everyone — especially if you're starting out and your account is not big, it's easier to say, “Oh my gosh, I am really desperate.  I got to make money doing this.  It took me so much time to save up this money. I don't want to lose my other job while I start this job”. There's just a lot of personal issues involved, and I can tell you that I believe it ’s extremely difficult to make money, if you have to make money.
You sometimes hear the adage, “You teach a man to fish.  You don't give him a fish,” and that's true with trading, right? Until you're completely comfortable taking full responsibility, it's really hard to make a living.  And everyone — especially if you're starting out and your account is not big, it's easier to say, “Oh my gosh, I am really desperate.  I got to make money doing this.  It took me so much time to save up this money. I don't want to lose my other job while I start this job”. There's just a lot of personal issues involved, and I can tell you that I believe it's extremely difficult to make money, if you have to make money.
===急于挣钱===
===急于挣钱===
 越急于挣钱，就越难 越 挣，因为你觉得再不挣到生活就要完了。你会犯错，而且你只会担心风险 ，但 交易 有 三个变量——风险、回报和概率 。 一个急于赚钱的人只看到了一个变量：风险。 “我承受不起损失”，对吧？一点点亏损 ， 两点点亏损，“我必须退出”，对吧？即使 市场 可能 需要一个比当前止损点高五个点的止损点 。你要在58收盘做空 ， 然后说 ：“我 只能 承受一 两个 点 的风险” ， 然后价格开始上涨，你 就 平仓了，对吧？如果你58收盘做空，那么你 的 止损点就在那里，就是这样， 对 吧 ？ 如果你买入了17收盘价，你的止损点可能在这里，我认为更接近这里。所以，如果你做这笔交易，你的止损点就在那里。
  你 越急于挣钱， 钱 就越难挣，因为你觉得再不挣到 钱，你的 生活就要完了。你会 因此更容易 犯错，而且你只会担心风险 。好的 交易 需要理智思考 三个变量——风险、回报和概率 ，然而， 一个急于赚钱的人只看到了一个变量：风险。 如果某笔交易 ，市场需要一个比当前止损点高五个点的止损点， 不理性的交易者会给自己一个心理暗示 ：“我承受 不起损失，出现 一点 亏损 ， 我 就 必须退出。”我说 的对 吗 ？
===Desperate to make money===
 
If you ’re really desperate to make money, it ’s really hard to make money because you ’re going to be miserable. You ’re going to make mistakes, and you ’re going be only worried about risk, and there are three variables — risk, reward, and probability.  A person who ’s desperate to make money only sees one variable:  Risk.   “I can ’t afford to lose,” right?  One point, two points, “I — I got to get out,” right?  Even though the market might call for a stop that ’s five points above. So you sell the 58 close and you say, “I can only risk a point or two,” and then it starts to go up here and you get out, right?  If you take – if you’re selling the 58 close, your stop is up there, period.  That’s it, right?  If you’re buying the 17 close, your stop may be down here.  I think more around here.  So that’s it; so if you take that trade, that’s where your stop is.
Desperate to make money
=== 只思考窄 止损===
 
 如果一个人只考虑风险，他 们 会 说， “我知道Al说止损应该放在 那 里，但是 也许 我 会买17 收盘买入， 期望市场继续 上涨， 然后 我 会 放一个 一点 的止损。” 然后你 在18 止损了。你 做了一个非常聪明 的交易 ；你的 方向 买 对 了 ，但你管理不当， 因为 你只看 到了风险， 你 不想亏超过一点 。
If you're really desperate to make money, it's really hard to make money because you're going to be miserable. You're going to make mistakes, and you're going be only worried about risk, and there are three variables — risk, reward, and probability.  A person who's desperate to make money only sees one variable:  Risk. “I can't afford to lose,” right?  One point, two points, “I — I got to get out,” right?  Even though the market might call for a stop that's five points above. 
=== 客观 止损===
 如果一个人只考虑风险，他 就 会 自作聪明的认为： “我知道Al说 的 止损应该放在 哪 里，但是我 可以在这根K线 收盘 后 买入， 确认下一根K线大概率还是 上涨 的 ， 那样 我 只需要 放 置 一个 很小很小 的止损。” 然后你 在下一根K线就被 止损了。 不可否认， 你的交易方向 是 对 的 ，但 是 你管理不当， 你又亏损了， 你只 能 看 着市场打掉你的止损后远远离 你 而去 。
===Thinking risk only===
===Thinking risk only===
And if a person ’s only thinking about risk, they ’re saying, “Well, I know that ’s where Al says that ’s where the stop goes, but maybe I ’ll buy the 17 close and take a chance that it will just go straight up and I ’ll put a one-point stop in.” Then you get stopped on 18, and you lost money buying.  You made a really smart trade; you know, you bought the market that ’s probably going up, but you managed it wrong because all you saw was risk and you did not want to lose more than a point.
And if a person's only thinking about risk, they're saying, “Well, I know that's where Al says that's where the stop goes, but maybe I'll buy the Bar 17 close and take a chance that it will just go straight up and I'll put a one-point stop in.” Then you get stopped on Bar 18, and you lost money buying.  You made a really smart trade; you know, you bought the market that's probably going up, but you managed it wrong because all you saw was risk and you did not want to lose more than a point.
=== 说太多也 会影响我自己交易===
=== 带单 会影响我自己交易===
 回到你刚才的问题我认为，除非 别人 把 它放 所有的交易细节都告诉你，否则听别人说的做是不可能赚钱的。为 什么 我不 能把细节都说出来呢 ，因为我一天要进行 太 多交易 了， 如果我要 把 思考如何设止损 ，缩窄 止损 ，临时决定 刮头皮等决策 等，还要 兼顾讲话，这样 太难了，这对 我 来说要付出太多了。
 回到你刚才的问题 ， 我认为，除非 那个带单的老师 把 他 所有的交易细节都告诉你，否则听别人说的做是不可能赚钱的。 因 为 市场瞬息万变，不受任何人的预测所影响，过去的预测往往要随着市场改变而改变。而 我 做 不 到这样 ，因为我 每 一天 都 要进行 很 多 笔 交易 。 如果我要 在 思考如何设止损 、收紧 止损 、 刮头皮等决策 的时候 兼顾讲话，这样 只会使 我 的交易分心 ， 使 我 的交易变差 。
 
比如，你看今天的14，17 ， 可以在上方挂单，止损就放在14，17下方，赚取4个点。在27下方做空，止损在27上方，期待价格跌倒24或25低位附近离场。虽然 我 可以把这些细节全部说出来，但很多时候我。。。 。 ？
===Talking costs money===
===Talking costs money===
But going back to your question. I think it ’s really impossible to make money listening to somebody else unless they ’re saying every little thing that they ’re doing. And I — I can ’t do it because I take so many trades during the day, and if I ’m talking as I ’m trying to make a decision about “Do I move the stop here?  Do I get out there?  Do I just get out with just two ticks?  Do I try to hold for two points?” you know, I cannot do both.  It will cost me too much money.
But going back to your question. I think it's really impossible to make money listening to somebody else unless they're saying every little thing that they're doing. And I — I can't do it because I take so many trades during the day, and if I'm talking as I'm trying to make a decision about “Do I move the stop here?  Do I get out there?  Do I just get out with just two ticks?  Do I try to hold for two points?” you know, I cannot do both.  It will cost me too much money.
 
=== 交易并非一成不变===
Sometimes, you get bars like 14 or even 27 that, you can just say, you buy above 14, stop above low 14, and hold for 4 points. Or you sell below 27, stop above 27, and you get out at the 24 or 25 low. Those things you can say because you said the whole package; you said where the stop is, you said where the limit order is, you said where the entry is.  But most of the trades I take during the day, that’s not what I’m trying to do; I’m trying to get out with one point or two points.
  市场瞬息万变，交易也并非一成不变。市场上 有一些交易 风险小，回报大，同样的 ， 有一 些交易 初始 风险大，但 是 实际风险小 。在第二种 交易 中， 我 会 使用宽止损，但是我绝对不会让止损触发。 这类交易的优点在于： 就实际风险而言， 其 实际风险很小，而回报很大。不知道我这样是否 解除 了你 心中 的 疑惑 ，但 是 我真的认为 ：通过 祈求上天来保证我们 永 不亏钱是不现实的 。如果你已经学会了 我 教学的 策略 ， 你 就 要 去 实践，你 需要 积累经验 ，才能培养出属于自己的信心，而这些东西，不通过自己努力，仅仅靠 依赖别人，是 永远得 不 到 的。
=== 小止损高回报===
 有 时候我会做 一些 技巧性 交易， 在这 些交易 中，存在一些不寻常的情况，其中 风险 并不是很 大，但 回报很大。或者 实际风险小 ，初始风险大的 交易 。 我使用宽止损，但是我绝对不会让 我的宽 止损触发。就实际风险而言，实际风险很小，而回报很大。不知道我这样是否 回答 了你的 问题 ，但我真的认为 依靠 祈求上天来保证我们不亏钱是不现实的 ， 我 们需要依靠这些 策略 。 你 需 要 的是 实践， 必须在 你 开始感到自信能够做到之前 积累 很多 经验 。 依赖别人 手把手带着你做 ， 这样做 是 行 不 通 的。
===Small risk, big reward===
===Small risk, big reward===
Sometimes I ’ll take finesse trades where there ’s some unusual situation where the risk is really not all that big and the reward is big. Or the actual risk is not big, the initial risk is big. I ’m using a wide stop, but I ’m never going to let the stop be hit.  In terms of actual risk, the actual risk is small and the reward is big. So I don ’t know.  I hope I ’m answering your question, but I really think looking for a God or savior to protect you, so that you don ’t lose money is not going do it. That ’s not what you need.  What you need is practice and you got to get a lot of trades under your belt before you start feeling comfortable that you can do this. And depending on someone else to hold your hand as you do it, that ’s just not going to work.
Sometimes I'll take finesse trades where there's some unusual situation where the risk is really not all that big and the reward is big. Or the actual risk is not big, the initial risk is big. I'm using a wide stop, but I'm never going to let the stop be hit.  In terms of actual risk, the actual risk is small and the reward is big. So I don't know.  I hope I'm answering your question, but I really think looking for a God or savior to protect you, so that you don't lose money is not going do it. That's not what you need.  What you need is practice and you got to get a lot of trades under your belt before you start feeling comfortable that you can do this. And depending on someone else to hold your hand as you do it, that's just not going to work.
===只依靠建仓形态是不够的===
===只依靠建仓形态是不够的===
 我曾经请过一 个 交易 教练。这个人 ，我偶尔还会在电视上看到他 。我觉得 他完全是个骗子 ，25 年前我花了3000美元请他来一天 。 那天他就坐在我旁边，我 就这样 亏了3000美元。我 给他付了3000 美元，我 输 了3000美元。我 开始追 问他：“你现在和我在一起，不 在 交易 。 你每天 会去 教学吗？你 会 交易多 少天 ？” 最后 他 说 他从来没有交易过 ，所以 他 现在 教别人如何交易，却不 是一个真正的 交易 者。这 个 人是 骗子 ，因为他自己不交易 。我当时非常绝望，愿意付出任何代价请人教我如何做交易。 但是即使 那天他教我 了1-2 个技巧，那 还是 远远不够 的 ，因为这一 点 点技巧很可能第二天就不适用了 。做一笔交易 只 看建仓形态是远远 不 够的 。
 我曾经请过一 位 交易 员做我的老师 ， 现在 我偶尔还会在电视上看到他 ， 他完全 就 是 一 个骗子 。在25 年前 ， 我花了3000美元请他来 教我 一天 ，我还记得 那天他就坐在我旁边， 而 我 却 亏了3000美元。我 花3000 美元 请他做我的老师 ， 却让 我 亏 了3000美元。我 质 问他：“你现在和我在一起， 看着我亏损，自己却 不交易 ， 你每天 都在外面 教学吗？你 自己 交易多 久 ？”他 回答我： 他从来没有交易过 。 他教别人如何交易， 自己 却不 做 交易 ，真是 个骗子。 我记得 我当时非常绝望， 我 愿意付出任何代价请 任何 人教我如何做交易。那天他教 了 我 几 个技巧， 但是 那远远不够，因为这一点技巧很可能第二天就不适用了 ， 只 有 不 断学习才能一直在市场上活下去 。
===Not just about setups===
===Not just about setups===
I remember I once hired a tutor. The guy, I still see him out there, every now and then, at the shows.  I think he ’s a total fraud, but he ’s still out there and 25 years ago I paid him, like, $3,000 to come in for the day. And I lost $3,000 with him sitting by my side that day.  So I paid him $3,000, I lost $3,000.  And I started pressing him, “You ’re here with me.  You ’re not trading.  How many days do you go out and teach?  How many days do you trade?”  Anyway, what it came down to was he says he never trades, and so here he is teaching people how to trade and he ’s not a trader.  The guy, he was a fraud.  The guy ’s a fraud.  He ’s not in the game. I was desperate, willing to pay anything to get somebody to show me how to do it. But even if he showed me one or two things that day, that still would not have been enough because those two things would not be there tomorrow, or the next day, or the next day.  There ’s a lot more to a trade than just setups.
I remember I once hired a tutor. The guy, I still see him out there, every now and then, at the shows.  I think he's a total fraud, but he's still out there and 25 years ago I paid him, like, $3,000 to come in for the day. And I lost $3,000 with him sitting by my side that day.  So I paid him $3,000, I lost $3,000.  And I started pressing him, “You're here with me.  You're not trading.  How many days do you go out and teach?  How many days do you trade?”  Anyway, what it came down to was he says he never trades, and so here he is teaching people how to trade and he's not a trader.  The guy, he was a fraud.  The guy's a fraud.  He's not in the game. I was desperate, willing to pay anything to get somebody to show me how to do it. But even if he showed me one or two things that day, that still would not have been enough because those two things would not be there tomorrow, or the next day, or the next day.  There's a lot more to a trade than just setups.
===使用正确的止损或止盈===
===使用正确的止损或止盈===
  大家 经常 听我 说  ， 大多数情况下， 如果 你使用正确的止损和止盈 目标 ，做空做多都可以赚钱。当市场处于 这种状态 时， 这是 显而易见的 ，对吧？（区间震荡） 。你可以在任何K线下方做多，任何K线上方做空， 直接 刮头皮 下去 。 很多时候 你懂得这样做， 这 不需要听别人 说，阿布说 在 这 里多 ，这 里空 。”止损点也总是很明显，对吧？所以如果你在这里的任何地方卖出，你的止损就在上面。突破之后，如果你在下面的任何地方卖出，你的止损就在上面 。
  我 经常说 ： “ 大多数情况下， 只要 你使用正确的止损和止盈， 无论 做空 还是 做多 你 都可以赚钱。当市场处于 盘整区间 时， 其更加 显而易见的。 ” 你可以在任何K线下方做多，任何K线上方做空， 永远做 刮头皮。 只要 你懂得这样做， 就 不需要听别人 告诉你 在 哪 里 做 多 、在哪 里 做 空。
===Use correct stop and targets===
===Use correct stop and targets===
In fact, you hear me regularly say — I’ve already said it a few minutes ago: most of the time, if you use a correct stop and a profit target, you can make money buying or selling.  It ’s obvious when the market is like this, right?  You can buy or sell. You can buy below anything, sell above anything, and just keep scalping. But most of the time you can do that so you don ’t need someone to say, “Oh Al, buy this,” or “Al, Al, sell that.”  And the stops are always obvious as well, right?  So if you’re buying anywhere in here, your stop is down here.  If you’re selling anywhere in here, your stop is up there.  After this breakout, if you’re selling anywhere below here, your stop is up here.
In fact, you hear me regularly say — most of the time, if you use a correct stop and a profit target, you can make money buying or selling.  It's obvious when the market is like this, right?  You can buy or sell. You can buy below anything, sell above anything, and just keep scalping. But most of the time you can do that so you don't need someone to say, “Oh Al, buy this,” or “Al, Al, sell that.” 
===开始交易===
所以，任何开始的人，他们都知道止损点在大多数情况下，如果市场呈趋势，他们看到它在上涨，他们知道止损点在哪里，对吗？所以当你买入时，你设置止损点，然后你等到它不再上涨。在这里，你知道它正在下跌，所以你可以随时以任何理由卖出。===您将止损设在此处，并在价格不再上涨时买回——可能高于 60，更有可能高于 71。
 
但这只是对交易的简单看法，并不需要担心有人会告诉你“Al，移动我的止损。Al，移动你的利润目标。” 当你看图表时，你会知道止损在哪里，对吧？现在，如果市场正在上涨，你知道你应该买入。如果市场正在下跌，你知道你应该卖出，也知道止损位于哪里。如果你要执行交易，那就该这样做。当市场上涨时，你就买进，并设置止损，然后继续持仓。
 
===Starting out===
So, any person starting out, they know where the stop is For the most part if the market’s trending, they see it’s going up and they know where the stop is, right?  So when you buy, you put your stop, and then you wait until it’s not going up anymore here.  Here, you know it’s going down, so you sell for any reason at any time. You put your stop up here, and buy back when it’s no longer going up — maybe above 60, maybe more likely above 71.
 
But that’s pretty much the simplistic view of the trade, right, and not worry that somebody’s going to show me, tell me, “Al, move my stop.  Al, move your profit target.”  When you look at the chart, you know where the stop is, right?  Now, if the market’s going up, you know you have to buy.  If the market’s going down, you know you have to sell, and you know where the stop is.  And if you’re going to take the trade, that’s what you do. When the market’s going up, you just buy and you put your stop there and just hold on.
===加仓===
如果你能够分批入场，那就更好了。所以你买进后会在更低的位置继续买入，如果价格下跌，那就更好。我不会在这个位置买进。我认为这里的风险太高了，可能是价格的顶部。在这里，我们可能会下跌。我们止损于那个高点。理论上，如果你在这里任何一个位置卖出，比如说你在12美元之上没有出场，那么你的止损就会在这里，然后你会在看到卖盘之后立刻买入更多。
 
在这个位置向上交易，就是在买进。这是一个“收盘买入”的例子，但你可能会失望。你必须在这里出场。但是如果你在下行途中卖出，卖在这里，或者在那儿卖，对吧？止损点在这里，你一直持有直到价格不再下跌。可能在62美元之上出场，甚至可能在60美元之上出场。
 
– excuse me, 63 – above 64, 66.
===Scaling in===
It’s much better if you can scale in, so you buy and you scale in lower, right, if it goes down, that’s good.  I would not buy up here.  I think there’s too much risk of that being the end.  Here, we’re probably going down.  We stop at that high.  Theoretically, if you sold anywhere down here — let’s say you did not get out above 12, which you should have, right, your stop is up here and you look to scale in as soon as you get a bear bar to sell more.
 
Trading up through here and you’re buying. This is an example of one of those Buy The Close bars, and you get disappointed You got to get out here.  But if you sell on the way down, sell here, sell there, right?  Stop goes up here, and you just hold on until it’s no longer going down.  Get out above 62, maybe get out above 60? – excuse me, 63 – above 64, 66.
===交易真的很简单！===
===交易真的很简单！===
 交易并不像想象中那么复杂。 我的建议是， 如果我告诉你止损点在某个位置，而你认为这个位置风险太大， 那么 就不要做这笔交易 。 但如果你决定要做， 那么 就设置好止损点。 如果 你能认真 考虑 交易 并 设定正确的止损点，你就有可能赚到钱。 即使 你 冒 一定的风险，但 也 不 应该 让风险大于你的收益。 如果 你 能 交易 足够小的仓位， 不害怕止损 ，然 后 再设置合理的止损 ， 也 会简单许多。
 交易并不像想象中那么复杂。如果我告诉你止损点在某个位置，而你认为这个位置风险太大， 你 就不要做这笔交易 ， 但如果你决定要做，就 一定要 设置好止损点。 只要 你能认真 制定 交易 计划、 设定正确的止损点，你就有可能赚到钱。 交易永远需要 你 承担 一定的风险，但 请 不 要 让风险大于你的收益。 当 你 的 交易 有一天 不 再 害怕止损后， 交易对你来说 会简单许多。
===Trading is easy, really!===
===Trading is easy, really!===
Trading is really not that complicated and I think traders learn — if you just listen to me during the day, I ’m telling you the stop goes here, and you say, “Well, I don ’t want to risk that much.”  Well, don ’t take the trade, but if you ’re going to take the trade, that ’s where the stop goes.  And if at the end of the day you sit down and listen to what I ’m saying, you ’ll say, “Hey, wait a minute, what Al said made sense.  You know, if I did buy there and if I did put that stop there or if I did sell there and I did put that stop there, I would have made money.”  I have to risk more than I wanted to risk, but I would have made money.  So if you can trade small enough, you can do it.  It ’s much easier to make money if you can trade small, and use the correct stops, and not worry about losing.
Trading is really not that complicated and I think traders learn — if you just listen to me during the day, I'm telling you the stop goes here, and you say, “Well, I don't want to risk that much.”  Well, don't take the trade, but if you're going to take the trade, that's where the stop goes.  And if at the end of the day you sit down and listen to what I'm saying, you'll say, “Hey, wait a minute, what Al said made sense.  You know, if I did buy there and if I did put that stop there or if I did sell there and I did put that stop there, I would have made money.”  I have to risk more than I wanted to risk, but I would have made money.  So if you can trade small enough, you can do it.  It's much easier to make money if you can trade small, and use the correct stops, and not worry about losing.
[[分类:Al Brooks Articles]]
[[分类:已发布]]

2023年5月16日 (二) 14:03的最新版本

许多年前，我花费3000美金从一个公司购买了一个交易策略，同时订阅了各种专家的分析频道以及咨询热线，可最后都无疾而终。你一定也在电视上听到过某某"专家"说：“黄金价格要涨”、“原油价格要跌”，或者“股市要涨”等等。你以为你掌握了盈利门路？实际上，你无法从中获利。我经常说：“市场大约有10%的时间处于强劲趋势中，在那种情况下，你只能买进或只能卖出，而剩下90%的时间是盘整状态，在盘整区间里，保持单边行情的看法只会让你亏钱。但如果你正确地管理你的交易，你任何时间买进或卖出都可以获利”。

I remember years ago — I forget the name of the company; maybe it was Essex Trading — I paid them $3,000 for formulas.  I used to subscribe to all kinds of guru newsletters and hotlines, and a lot of it is just a total waste of money, right? If you see some clown on television saying, “Gold is going up,” or “Crude oil is going down,” or “The stock market is going up,” you cannot make money off of that because you hear me say this pretty regularly:  About 10 percent of the time (in strong trends) you can only make money buying or only make money selling.  90 percent of the time (in trading ranges), you can buy or sell at any point and make money, if you manage your trade correctly. 

授人以渔

授人以鱼，不如授人以渔，在交易中也是如此。在你能够完全承担交易中所有责任之前，以交易为生是不现实的。如果你还是一位交易新手，资金也不够大，你很容易就会说：“天哪，我真的很绝望，我必须赚回来，我花了很多时间才存下这笔本金。”在我看来，这种情绪只会让你失去冷静思考的能力，导致恶性循环，让你的交易越来越差。

Teach a man to fish (trade)

You sometimes hear the adage, “You teach a man to fish.  You don't give him a fish,” and that's true with trading, right? Until you're completely comfortable taking full responsibility, it's really hard to make a living.  And everyone — especially if you're starting out and your account is not big, it's easier to say, “Oh my gosh, I am really desperate.  I got to make money doing this.  It took me so much time to save up this money. I don't want to lose my other job while I start this job”. There's just a lot of personal issues involved, and I can tell you that I believe it's extremely difficult to make money, if you have to make money.

急于挣钱

你越急于挣钱，钱就越难挣，因为你觉得再不挣到钱，你的生活就要完了。你会因此更容易犯错，而且你只会担心风险。好的交易需要理智思考三个变量——风险、回报和概率，然而，一个急于赚钱的人只看到了一个变量：风险。如果某笔交易，市场需要一个比当前止损点高五个点的止损点，不理性的交易者会给自己一个心理暗示：“我承受不起损失，出现一点亏损，我就必须退出。”我说的对吗？

Desperate to make money

If you're really desperate to make money, it's really hard to make money because you're going to be miserable. You're going to make mistakes, and you're going be only worried about risk, and there are three variables — risk, reward, and probability.  A person who's desperate to make money only sees one variable:  Risk. “I can't afford to lose,” right?  One point, two points, “I — I got to get out,” right?  Even though the market might call for a stop that's five points above.

客观止损

如果一个人只考虑风险，他就会自作聪明的认为：“我知道Al说的止损应该放在哪里，但是我可以在这根K线收盘后买入，确认下一根K线大概率还是上涨的，那样我只需要放置一个很小很小的止损。” 然后你在下一根K线就被止损了。不可否认，你的交易方向是对的，但是你管理不当，你又亏损了，你只能看着市场打掉你的止损后远远离你而去。

Thinking risk only

And if a person's only thinking about risk, they're saying, “Well, I know that's where Al says that's where the stop goes, but maybe I'll buy the Bar 17 close and take a chance that it will just go straight up and I'll put a one-point stop in.” Then you get stopped on Bar 18, and you lost money buying.  You made a really smart trade; you know, you bought the market that's probably going up, but you managed it wrong because all you saw was risk and you did not want to lose more than a point.

带单会影响我自己交易

回到你刚才的问题，我认为，除非那个带单的老师把他所有的交易细节都告诉你，否则听别人说的做是不可能赚钱的。因为市场瞬息万变，不受任何人的预测所影响，过去的预测往往要随着市场改变而改变。而我做不到这样，因为我每一天都要进行很多笔交易。如果我要在思考如何设止损、收紧止损、刮头皮等决策的时候兼顾讲话，这样只会使我的交易分心，使我的交易变差。

Talking costs money

But going back to your question. I think it's really impossible to make money listening to somebody else unless they're saying every little thing that they're doing. And I — I can't do it because I take so many trades during the day, and if I'm talking as I'm trying to make a decision about “Do I move the stop here?  Do I get out there?  Do I just get out with just two ticks?  Do I try to hold for two points?” you know, I cannot do both.  It will cost me too much money.

交易并非一成不变

市场瞬息万变，交易也并非一成不变。市场上有一些交易风险小，回报大，同样的，有一些交易初始风险大，但是实际风险小。在第二种交易中，我会使用宽止损，但是我绝对不会让止损触发。这类交易的优点在于：就实际风险而言，其实际风险很小，而回报很大。不知道我这样是否解除了你心中的疑惑，但是我真的认为：通过祈求上天来保证我们永不亏钱是不现实的。如果你已经学会了我教学的策略，你就要去实践，你需要积累经验，才能培养出属于自己的信心，而这些东西，不通过自己努力，仅仅靠依赖别人，是永远得不到的。

Small risk, big reward

Sometimes I'll take finesse trades where there's some unusual situation where the risk is really not all that big and the reward is big. Or the actual risk is not big, the initial risk is big. I'm using a wide stop, but I'm never going to let the stop be hit.  In terms of actual risk, the actual risk is small and the reward is big. So I don't know.  I hope I'm answering your question, but I really think looking for a God or savior to protect you, so that you don't lose money is not going do it. That's not what you need.  What you need is practice and you got to get a lot of trades under your belt before you start feeling comfortable that you can do this. And depending on someone else to hold your hand as you do it, that's just not going to work.

只依靠建仓形态是不够的

我曾经请过一位交易员做我的老师，现在我偶尔还会在电视上看到他，他完全就是一个骗子。在25年前，我花了3000美元请他来教我一天，我还记得那天他就坐在我旁边，而我却亏了3000美元。我花3000美元请他做我的老师，却让我亏了3000美元。我质问他：“你现在和我在一起，看着我亏损，自己却不交易，你每天都在外面教学吗？你自己交易多久？”他回答我：他从来没有交易过。他教别人如何交易，自己却不做交易，真是个骗子。我记得我当时非常绝望，我愿意付出任何代价请任何人教我如何做交易。那天他教了我几个技巧，但是那远远不够，因为这一点技巧很可能第二天就不适用了，只有不断学习才能一直在市场上活下去。

Not just about setups

I remember I once hired a tutor. The guy, I still see him out there, every now and then, at the shows.  I think he's a total fraud, but he's still out there and 25 years ago I paid him, like, $3,000 to come in for the day. And I lost $3,000 with him sitting by my side that day.  So I paid him $3,000, I lost $3,000.  And I started pressing him, “You're here with me.  You're not trading.  How many days do you go out and teach?  How many days do you trade?”  Anyway, what it came down to was he says he never trades, and so here he is teaching people how to trade and he's not a trader.  The guy, he was a fraud.  The guy's a fraud.  He's not in the game. I was desperate, willing to pay anything to get somebody to show me how to do it. But even if he showed me one or two things that day, that still would not have been enough because those two things would not be there tomorrow, or the next day, or the next day.  There's a lot more to a trade than just setups.

使用正确的止损或止盈

我经常说： “大多数情况下，只要你使用正确的止损和止盈，无论做空还是做多你都可以赚钱。当市场处于盘整区间时，其更加显而易见的。”你可以在任何K线下方做多，任何K线上方做空，永远做刮头皮。只要你懂得这样做，就不需要听别人告诉你在哪里做多、在哪里做空。

Use correct stop and targets

In fact, you hear me regularly say — most of the time, if you use a correct stop and a profit target, you can make money buying or selling.  It's obvious when the market is like this, right?  You can buy or sell. You can buy below anything, sell above anything, and just keep scalping. But most of the time you can do that so you don't need someone to say, “Oh Al, buy this,” or “Al, Al, sell that.” 

交易真的很简单！

交易并不像想象中那么复杂。如果我告诉你止损点在某个位置，而你认为这个位置风险太大，你就不要做这笔交易，但如果你决定要做，就一定要设置好止损点。只要你能认真制定交易计划、设定正确的止损点，你就有可能赚到钱。交易永远需要你承担一定的风险，但请不要让风险大于你的收益。当你的交易有一天不再害怕止损后，交易对你来说会简单许多。

Trading is easy, really!

Trading is really not that complicated and I think traders learn — if you just listen to me during the day, I'm telling you the stop goes here, and you say, “Well, I don't want to risk that much.”  Well, don't take the trade, but if you're going to take the trade, that's where the stop goes.  And if at the end of the day you sit down and listen to what I'm saying, you'll say, “Hey, wait a minute, what Al said made sense.  You know, if I did buy there and if I did put that stop there or if I did sell there and I did put that stop there, I would have made money.”  I have to risk more than I wanted to risk, but I would have made money.  So if you can trade small enough, you can do it.  It's much easier to make money if you can trade small, and use the correct stops, and not worry about losing.

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