查看“交易手册：基本面交易的愚昧”的源代码

= Fundamentals are useless to a trader =
I strongly agree with Nobel Prize laureate, Bob Shiller, who says, “The whole idea that the stock market reflects fundamentals is, I think, wrong. It really reflects psychology. The aggregate stock market reflects psychology more than fundamentals.”

If JPM is a better bank than a competitor, it is worth relatively more. In simplest terms, its stock will usually have a higher price per dollar of earnings. However, if the overall economy is falling apart, its P/E ratio will fall, meaning that its price will fall, even if its earnings are good. So, what should its price be? No one ever knows, but investors will likely pay more per dollar of earnings than they would for a bank of lesser quality. That is pretty much the extent of the impact of fundamentals, other than an occasional news event.

The fundamentals have nothing to do with the actual price of anything, only with the relative price, and even then, their effect is too non-specific to be of any value to a trader, who will hold a position for minutes to a few days.

'''基本面对交易者毫无用处。'''

我完全同意诺贝尔奖得主鲍勃·席勒的观点：“‘股市反映基本面’这一整个想法是错误的。它反映的是市场的心理状态。总体上股市反映了心理状态还是胜过于基本面。”

如果摩根大通比竞争对手更好，那么摩根大通就有相对更高的价值。简单来说，它的股票通常会有更高的市盈率。然而，如果整个经济正在崩溃，它的市盈率将会下降，这意味着即使其收益良好，其价格也会下降。那么它的价格应该是多少呢？没有人知道，但比起质量较差的银行，投资者很可能还是会为摩根大通买单。这就是基本面的影响，除了偶尔发生的新闻事件之外。

基本面与任何实际价格无关，只与相对价格有关。即使如此，它也对于一个持仓数分钟到几天的交易者没有任何价值。