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*if a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).<ref>[[:Category:Exceptionally Big Bar|Category:Exceptionally Big Bar]]</ref><ref>[[Always in Short]]</ref>
**after 2 or more consecutive big bull bars closing on their highs, and with little overlap, there is 70% chance of at least a MM up<ref>49A</ref>.

*probability of success of 70 percent or better (reward has to be '''at least half as big as risk''' just to break even):
**Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. '''For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable'''<ref>TR book, chapter 25</ref>.
*if bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of Triangle<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High|''Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High'']]</ref>.
*70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>.
*when big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after 10am.
*''if yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today''<ref>discord from brad wolff on 7-20-2022</ref>''.''
* when big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day.
* 75% chance the BO above a [[Bull Channel]] fails within the next 5 bars.
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