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== 可以跟着阿布的交易方法挣钱吗 ==

== 交易室问答：二月29日2016年。 ==
问题：我现在交易还难以盈利。如果我只学你的交易，那么在我自己的能力得到提升之前，我是否能够通过交易谋生呢？

Question: I’m still struggling to make money. If I just follow your trade suggestions, will I be able to make a living until I get good?


=== 不要跟任何人的单 ===
建议不要听任何人的话可能会导致昂贵的错误。除非你已经听完了我已讲过的所有课。例如在14很可能是一个摆动做多位，止盈至少4点。

但是很多时候，我一整天都在刮头皮。32 上方做空，37上方做空。我不会告诉你所有我做单的细节，哪里设置止损，哪里加仓，什么时候提前止损。

=== Do not follow anyone ===
I would strongly recommend not listening to me or not listening to anyone.  I think that’s a really costly mistake because, unless — at some point once I finish all the course and all the other projects I’ve got going on, I probably will talk more — you heard me say 14 is probably a swing buy, good for at least four points, stuff like that.  That’s okay because it’s clear:  You buy above 14, you put a stop below 14, and you place a limit order to get out four points higher.  So that’s pretty good.

But a lot of times, I’m just taking little scalps all day long — selling above 32; selling above 37. Through here I did several little trades in here.  And I’m not telling you all the details.  I’m not saying, “Oh, I’m putting a stop here and I’m not going to let the stop get hit.  I’m going to scale in in this particular case.”  I’m not saying any of that.

=== 我浪费钱的经历 ===
我记得许多年前，我花了3000美金从一个公司购买交易信号。还订阅了各种专家的分析，咨询热线。但最后发现钱都打水漂了。

如果你在电视上某个"专家"说：“黄金价格要涨”，或者“原油价格要跌”，或者“股市要涨”，你无法从中获利，因为你经常听到我说：约有10%的时候你只能买进或只能卖出。而剩下90%的时间，如果你正确地管理你的交易，你可以在任何时候买进或卖出并获利。因此，上图这种10%的情况，你只有做空才能赚钱。但是有90%的K线在图表上都是区间震荡，所以做空做多都可以盈利。

上图的盘面我们有几个不错的摆动交易信号，超过的10%的K线都在突破。在另一些的区间交易日，只要你的止损够宽，配合上加仓，最终也能盈利。 

=== Wasting money ===
I remember years ago — I forget the name of the company; maybe it was Essex Trading — I paid them $3,000 for formulas.  I used to subscribe to all kinds of guru newsletters and hotlines, and a lot of it is just a total waste of money, right?

If you see some clown on television saying, “Gold is going up,” or “Crude oil is going down,” or “The stock market is going up,” you cannot make money off of that because you hear me say this pretty regularly:  About 10 percent of the time you can only make money buying or only make money selling.  90 percent of the time, you can buy or sell at any point and make money, if you manage your trade correctly.  So 10 percent of the bars on the chart, the market’s doing this, you can only make money if you sell. But 90 percent of the bars on the chart the market’s doing this and you can make money buying or selling at any time.

You know, today we had pretty good swings here and here, so maybe more than 10 percent is breakout.  On a typical day, it’s like this — you can buy at any point; you can sell at any point if you use a wide enough stop, and scale in and manage your trade correctly. 

=== 授人以渔 ===
受人以鱼，不如受人以渔，在交易中也是如此。在你完全能够承担交易中全部责任之前，谋生确实很困难。特别是如果你刚开始，账户不够大，很容易说：“哦天哪，我真的很绝望，我必须通过这个赚钱。我花了很多时间存下这些钱。”这些担忧会让你难以两头兼顾。在我看来，非常想挣钱的这些情绪，会让你的更加难在交易中成功。

=== Teach a man to fish (trade) ===
So, I would not worry too much about what I say or about what anybody else says.  You sometimes hear the adage, “You teach a man to fish.  You don’t give him a fish,” and that’s true with trading, right? Until you’re completely comfortable taking full responsibility, it’s really hard to make a living.  And everyone — especially if you’re starting out and your account is not big, it’s easier to say, “Oh my gosh, I am really desperate.  I got to make money doing this.  It took me so much time to save up this money. I don’t want to lose my other job while I start this job”. There’s just a lot of personal issues involved, and I can tell you that I believe it’s extremely difficult to make money, if you have to make money.

=== 急于挣钱 ===
越急于挣钱，就越难越挣，因为你觉得再不挣到生活就要完了。你会犯错，而且你只会担心风险，但交易有三个变量——风险、回报和概率。一个急于赚钱的人只看到了一个变量：风险。“我承受不起损失”，对吧？一点点亏损，两点点亏损，“我必须退出”，对吧？即使市场可能需要一个比当前止损点高五个点的止损点。你要在58收盘做空，然后说：“我只能承受一两个点的风险”，然后价格开始上涨，你就平仓了，对吧？如果你58收盘做空，那么你的止损点就在那里，就是这样，对吧？如果你买入了17收盘价，你的止损点可能在这里，我认为更接近这里。所以，如果你做这笔交易，你的止损点就在那里。

=== Desperate to make money ===
If you’re really desperate to make money, it’s really hard to make money because you’re going to be miserable. You’re going to make mistakes, and you’re going be only worried about risk, and there are three variables — risk, reward, and probability.  A person who’s desperate to make money only sees one variable:  Risk.  “I can’t afford to lose,” right?  One point, two points, “I — I got to get out,” right?  Even though the market might call for a stop that’s five points above. So you sell the 58 close and you say, “I can only risk a point or two,” and then it starts to go up here and you get out, right?  If you take – if you’re selling the 58 close, your stop is up there, period.  That’s it, right?  If you’re buying the 17 close, your stop may be down here.  I think more around here.  So that’s it; so if you take that trade, that’s where your stop is.

=== 只思考窄止损 ===
如果一个人只考虑风险，他们会说，“我知道Al说止损应该放在那里，但是也许我会买17收盘买入，期望市场继续上涨，然后我会放一个一点的止损。” 然后你在18止损了。你做了一个非常聪明的交易；你的方向买对了，但你管理不当，因为你只看到了风险，你不想亏超过一点。

=== Thinking risk only ===
And if a person’s only thinking about risk, they’re saying, “Well, I know that’s where Al says that’s where the stop goes, but maybe I’ll buy the 17 close and take a chance that it will just go straight up and I’ll put a one-point stop in.” Then you get stopped on 18, and you lost money buying.  You made a really smart trade; you know, you bought the market that’s probably going up, but you managed it wrong because all you saw was risk and you did not want to lose more than a point.

=== 说太多也会影响我自己交易 ===
回到你刚才的问题我认为，除非别人把它放所有的交易细节都告诉你，否则听别人说的做是不可能赚钱的。为什么我不能把细节都说出来呢，因为我一天要进行太多交易了，如果我要把思考如何设止损，缩窄止损，临时决定刮头皮等决策等，还要兼顾讲话，这样太难了，这对我来说要付出太多了。

比如，你看今天的14，17，可以在上方挂单，止损就放在14，17下方，赚取4个点。在27下方做空，止损在27上方，期待价格跌倒24或25低位附近离场。虽然我可以把这些细节全部说出来，但很多时候我。。。。？

=== Talking costs money ===
But going back to your question. I think it’s really impossible to make money listening to somebody else unless they’re saying every little thing that they’re doing. And I — I can’t do it because I take so many trades during the day, and if I’m talking as I’m trying to make a decision about “Do I move the stop here?  Do I get out there?  Do I just get out with just two ticks?  Do I try to hold for two points?” you know, I cannot do both.  It will cost me too much money.

Sometimes, you get bars like 14 or even 27 that, you can just say, you buy above 14, stop above low 14, and hold for 4 points. Or you sell below 27, stop above 27, and you get out at the 24 or 25 low. Those things you can say because you said the whole package; you said where the stop is, you said where the limit order is, you said where the entry is.  But most of the trades I take during the day, that’s not what I’m trying to do; I’m trying to get out with one point or two points.

=== 小止损高回报 ===
有时候我会做一些技巧性交易，在这些交易中，存在一些不寻常的情况，其中风险并不是很大，但回报很大。或者实际风险小，初始风险大的交易。我使用宽止损，但是我绝对不会让我的宽止损触发。就实际风险而言，实际风险很小，而回报很大。不知道我这样是否回答了你的问题，但我真的认为依靠祈求上天来保证我们不亏钱是不现实的，我们需要依靠这些策略。你需要的是实践，必须在你开始感到自信能够做到之前积累很多经验。依赖别人手把手带着你做，这样做是行不通的。

=== Small risk, big reward ===
Sometimes I’ll take finesse trades where there’s some unusual situation where the risk is really not all that big and the reward is big. Or the actual risk is not big, the initial risk is big. I’m using a wide stop, but I’m never going to let the stop be hit.  In terms of actual risk, the actual risk is small and the reward is big. So I don’t know.  I hope I’m answering your question, but I really think looking for a God or savior to protect you, so that you don’t lose money is not going do it. That’s not what you need.  What you need is practice and you got to get a lot of trades under your belt before you start feeling comfortable that you can do this. And depending on someone else to hold your hand as you do it, that’s just not going to work.

=== 只依靠建仓形态是不够的 ===
我曾经请过一个交易教练。这个人，我偶尔还会在电视上看到他。我觉得他完全是个骗子，25年前我花了3000美元请他来一天。那天他就坐在我旁边，我就这样亏了3000美元。我给他付了3000美元，我输了3000美元。我开始追问他：“你现在和我在一起，不在交易。你每天会去教学吗？你会交易多少天？”最后他说他从来没有交易过，所以他现在教别人如何交易，却不是一个真正的交易者。这个人是骗子，因为他自己不交易。我当时非常绝望，愿意付出任何代价请人教我如何做交易。但是即使那天他教我了1-2个技巧，那还是远远不够的，因为这一点点技巧很可能第二天就不适用了。做一笔交易只看建仓形态是远远不够的。

=== Not just about setups ===
I remember I once hired a tutor. The guy, I still see him out there, every now and then, at the shows.  I think he’s a total fraud, but he’s still out there and 25 years ago I paid him, like, $3,000 to come in for the day. And I lost $3,000 with him sitting by my side that day.  So I paid him $3,000, I lost $3,000.  And I started pressing him, “You’re here with me.  You’re not trading.  How many days do you go out and teach?  How many days do you trade?”  Anyway, what it came down to was he says he never trades, and so here he is teaching people how to trade and he’s not a trader.  The guy, he was a fraud.  The guy’s a fraud.  He’s not in the game. I was desperate, willing to pay anything to get somebody to show me how to do it. But even if he showed me one or two things that day, that still would not have been enough because those two things would not be there tomorrow, or the next day, or the next day.  There’s a lot more to a trade than just setups.

=== 使用正确的止损或止盈 ===
大家经常听我说 ，大多数情况下，如果你使用正确的止损和止盈目标，做空做多都可以赚钱。当市场处于这种状态时，这是显而易见的，对吧？（区间震荡）。你可以在任何K线下方做多，任何K线上方做空，直接刮头皮下去。很多时候你懂得这样做，这不需要听别人说，阿布说在这里多，这里空。”止损点也总是很明显，对吧？所以如果你在这里的任何地方卖出，你的止损就在上面。突破之后，如果你在下面的任何地方卖出，你的止损就在上面。 

=== Use correct stop and targets ===
In fact, you hear me regularly say — I’ve already said it a few minutes ago: most of the time, if you use a correct stop and a profit target, you can make money buying or selling.  It’s obvious when the market is like this, right?  You can buy or sell. You can buy below anything, sell above anything, and just keep scalping. But most of the time you can do that so you don’t need someone to say, “Oh Al, buy this,” or “Al, Al, sell that.”  And the stops are always obvious as well, right?  So if you’re buying anywhere in here, your stop is down here.  If you’re selling anywhere in here, your stop is up there.  After this breakout, if you’re selling anywhere below here, your stop is up here. 

=== 开始交易 ===
所以，任何开始的人，他们都知道止损点在大多数情况下，如果市场呈趋势，他们看到它在上涨，他们知道止损点在哪里，对吗？所以当你买入时，你设置止损点，然后你等到它不再上涨。在这里，你知道它正在下跌，所以你可以随时以任何理由卖出。===您将止损设在此处，并在价格不再上涨时买回——可能高于 60，更有可能高于 71。

但这只是对交易的简单看法，并不需要担心有人会告诉你“Al，移动我的止损。Al，移动你的利润目标。” 当你看图表时，你会知道止损在哪里，对吧？现在，如果市场正在上涨，你知道你应该买入。如果市场正在下跌，你知道你应该卖出，也知道止损位于哪里。如果你要执行交易，那就该这样做。当市场上涨时，你就买进，并设置止损，然后继续持仓。 


=== Starting out ===
So, any person starting out, they know where the stop is For the most part if the market’s trending, they see it’s going up and they know where the stop is, right?  So when you buy, you put your stop, and then you wait until it’s not going up anymore here.  Here, you know it’s going down, so you sell for any reason at any time. You put your stop up here, and buy back when it’s no longer going up — maybe above 60, maybe more likely above 71.

But that’s pretty much the simplistic view of the trade, right, and not worry that somebody’s going to show me, tell me, “Al, move my stop.  Al, move your profit target.”  When you look at the chart, you know where the stop is, right?  Now, if the market’s going up, you know you have to buy.  If the market’s going down, you know you have to sell, and you know where the stop is.  And if you’re going to take the trade, that’s what you do. When the market’s going up, you just buy and you put your stop there and just hold on. 

=== 加仓 ===
如果你能够分批入场，那就更好了。所以你买进后会在更低的位置继续买入，如果价格下跌，那就更好。我不会在这个位置买进。我认为这里的风险太高了，可能是价格的顶部。在这里，我们可能会下跌。我们止损于那个高点。理论上，如果你在这里任何一个位置卖出，比如说你在12美元之上没有出场，那么你的止损就会在这里，然后你会在看到卖盘之后立刻买入更多。 

在这个位置向上交易，就是在买进。这是一个“收盘买入”的例子，但你可能会失望。你必须在这里出场。但是如果你在下行途中卖出，卖在这里，或者在那儿卖，对吧？止损点在这里，你一直持有直到价格不再下跌。可能在62美元之上出场，甚至可能在60美元之上出场。

– excuse me, 63 – above 64, 66. 

=== Scaling in ===
It’s much better if you can scale in, so you buy and you scale in lower, right, if it goes down, that’s good.  I would not buy up here.  I think there’s too much risk of that being the end.  Here, we’re probably going down.  We stop at that high.  Theoretically, if you sold anywhere down here — let’s say you did not get out above 12, which you should have, right, your stop is up here and you look to scale in as soon as you get a bear bar to sell more. 

Trading up through here and you’re buying. This is an example of one of those Buy The Close bars, and you get disappointed You got to get out here.  But if you sell on the way down, sell here, sell there, right?  Stop goes up here, and you just hold on until it’s no longer going down.  Get out above 62, maybe get out above 60? – excuse me, 63 – above 64, 66. 

=== 交易真的很简单！ ===
交易并不像想象中那么复杂。我的建议是，如果我告诉你止损点在某个位置，而你认为这个位置风险太大，那么就不要做这笔交易。但如果你决定要做，那么就设置好止损点。如果你能认真考虑交易并设定正确的止损点，你就有可能赚到钱。即使你冒一定的风险，但也不应该让风险大于你的收益。如果你能交易足够小的仓位，不害怕止损，然后再设置合理的止损，也会简单许多。

=== Trading is easy, really! ===
Trading is really not that complicated and I think traders learn — if you just listen to me during the day, I’m telling you the stop goes here, and you say, “Well, I don’t want to risk that much.”  Well, don’t take the trade, but if you’re going to take the trade, that’s where the stop goes.  And if at the end of the day you sit down and listen to what I’m saying, you’ll say, “Hey, wait a minute, what Al said made sense.  You know, if I did buy there and if I did put that stop there or if I did sell there and I did put that stop there, I would have made money.”  I have to risk more than I wanted to risk, but I would have made money.  So if you can trade small enough, you can do it.  It’s much easier to make money if you can trade small, and use the correct stops, and not worry about losing.

=== 复盘 ===
我说太多了，嗓子都说哑了。好吧，我希望大家晚安。这次卖盘高潮我认为也是个衰竭信号，这是一个巨大的卖盘高潮。我认为，尽管从日线图上看，今天是熊市的一个相当不错的进场机会，但我仍认为这将是一个两三天的回调，而在三月的第一二周，我们会站在这个价格以上。但是我认为在那里会有卖盘。很多多头都在关注这个市场，他们正在卖出，但是其中一些多头正在使用高位止损，认为我们可能会上涨一点。我仍然认为我们的胜算是会超过周五的高点。但即使我们没有超过上周五的高点，我也不会感到惊讶。我相信仍然有可能上涨一次。这次上涨也许会形成一个楔形或者看熊期，一次推动、两次推动、回落，然后再三次推动。大概会持续到至两、三周。

大概就这些，祝各位晚安。

=== End of day review ===
Anyway, I’m talking too much and I’m losing my voice.  Okay, I hope everybody has a good night.  This is I think an exhaustive sell climax.  This is huge. I think, even though on the daily chart today is a pretty good entry bar for the bears, I still think it’s going to be a two or three-day pullback, and that in March, in the first week or two, we’ll get above here. But I think there’ll be sellers up there.  A lot of bulls are looking at this and they’re selling, but some of those bulls are using stops way, way up here thinking that we may go up a little higher.  I still think the odds are we’re going to go above Friday’s high. But I would not be surprised if we did not, but I still think we’ll get one more push up. And that will probably be it, maybe a wedge, bear flag, one push, two pushes, pullback, and then three pushes. Two or three weeks from now, and that will probably be it.

Okay, hope everybody has a good night.

''Al Brooks''


阿布
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